This memorandum describes three potential evolution trends that the corona epidemic might follow in Finland, together with their economic and social impacts. The scenarios start from the coming summer and extend until the end of 2023. The analysis presented here is a follow- up to the short-term scenarios (covering approx. 6 months) published in December 2020 that examined the combined and mutual effects of the epidemic and its economic and social consequences.

Compared with many other countries, Finland has so far survived the COVID-19 epidemic with relatively little damage in terms of health protection and the economy. By the beginning of February 2021, the lowest number of COVID-19 cases relative to the population than anywhere else in the EU/EEA area was recorded in Finland. In the early part of this year, the evolution has essentially followed the base case scenario of the models published last December. Since the second half of February, infections have increased rapidly, virus variants are spreading fast, and there is a growing demand for hospital beds. At present, at the turn of February and March 2021, Finland faces a very challenging epidemiological situation.